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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 07 2018 at 6:07am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

"Winter is coming!"

I have livestock to take care of and I heat my house mostly with wood during the winter months, I have a vested interest in long range forecasts.

So far it looks like the Pacific Northwest my have a relatively mild winter, but that does not appear to be the case for the Eastern part of the country.

I monitor solar activity regularly since that has a real bearing on our weather. It appears that we are heading into a grand solar minimum. Lots of "doom and gloom" talk out there about the GSM bringing on another mini ice age.

So this might be a good time to invest in long underwear futures..!
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richhodg66
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Posted: October 07 2018 at 7:25am | IP Logged Quote richhodg66

They're predicting a rough one here this Winter after several very mild ones in a row. Used to hate Winter, but I'm getting to where I really dislike the bugs and heat and mowing grass worse. I just wish it would stop raining for a while here.

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beerd
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 4:58am | IP Logged Quote beerd

Grand solar minimum?
Mini ice age?
All I've ben reading about is global warming.
I'm so confused!
..
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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 6:13am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

Global warming may have been a misconception.
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Ham Gunner
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 1:09pm | IP Logged Quote Ham Gunner

As we know, the sun cycles in an eleven year cycle and has done so with predictability for hundreds of years of our monitoring. Until this cycle. The maximum peak of the cycle, which normally consists of lots of sunspot activity just did not happen. Very little activity during this last cycle.

I think global warming believers give man way too much credit for changing the climate. Our sun certainly could change our climate drastically by only a small variation of it's cycling.

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richhodg66
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 2:35pm | IP Logged Quote richhodg66

I agree. The earth has been in a relatively mild weather period for several hundred years and it's just cycling back. Despite all the hand wringing, man has a lot les to do with it than they would have us believe. In the 1970s, all those same types figured we'd be in an ice age now.

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Ham Gunner
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 9:07pm | IP Logged Quote Ham Gunner

I remember reading of a study by a group of scientists that had gathered evidence in layers of the earth of the sun also having a much longer cycle of some sort. More like thousands of years cycle. Not much man can do about the sun, but give it a little time and some will try to blame us for it anyway.

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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 09 2018 at 5:34am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

If you look at the recorded cycles of sunspot activity, the peak of the cycles has continually decreased. The low point of this cycle is predicted to be in 2020.

In reality the Earth goes through warm periods that last for hundreds of years and then into cooling periods that last for thousands.

There are other factors that contribute to climate change, the Earth's orbit around the sun is not constant, at times it is more elliptical, moving the Northern hemisphere further from the sun in summer. The Earth's tilt on it's axis changes as well. When all of these factors combine, then we have ice ages.
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beerd
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Posted: October 09 2018 at 6:12pm | IP Logged Quote beerd

just my opinion, but it's good to see the guys on this forum have a clue on what makes up climate.
..
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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 10 2018 at 6:05am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

beerd


Just a clue..there are a multitude of factors, right now were are in an El Nino cycle, or a variation of that that will have a substantial effect on the weather, then there are the deep ocean currents, or the "deep ocean conveyor" that takes around 10 thousand years to make a complete circuit.

Anyone who points to just one factor and hangs climate change on that is ignorant, a fool or both.

There are predictions by scientists that have a grasp of the total picture that makes up climate, that as we approach the grand solar minimum there may be a corresponding increase in volcanic activity, the resulting clouds, will further decrease temperature.
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Ham Gunner
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Posted: October 10 2018 at 8:01am | IP Logged Quote Ham Gunner

Instead of wringing their hands and screaming the sky is falling and we are all going to burn up, the climate whiners probably should be gathering up nuts for the long winter. Whatever happens, we will just have to adapt. Believing that the earth's climate and the ocean's level should always stay the same is just delusional thinking. But then, many of us have known for a long time that there are lots of sheep in our world that will follow anything like a, well a flock of sheep. They will forever live in a fantasy world.

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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 11 2018 at 6:16am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

Ham Gunner

There are three kinds of people in the world, sheep, wolves and sheep dogs, the best sheep dogs have a more than a little wolf in them.

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