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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 07 2018 at 6:07am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

"Winter is coming!"

I have livestock to take care of and I heat my house mostly with wood during the winter months, I have a vested interest in long range forecasts.

So far it looks like the Pacific Northwest my have a relatively mild winter, but that does not appear to be the case for the Eastern part of the country.

I monitor solar activity regularly since that has a real bearing on our weather. It appears that we are heading into a grand solar minimum. Lots of "doom and gloom" talk out there about the GSM bringing on another mini ice age.

So this might be a good time to invest in long underwear futures..!
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richhodg66
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Posted: October 07 2018 at 7:25am | IP Logged Quote richhodg66

They're predicting a rough one here this Winter after several very mild ones in a row. Used to hate Winter, but I'm getting to where I really dislike the bugs and heat and mowing grass worse. I just wish it would stop raining for a while here.

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beerd
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 4:58am | IP Logged Quote beerd

Grand solar minimum?
Mini ice age?
All I've ben reading about is global warming.
I'm so confused!
..
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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 6:13am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

Global warming may have been a misconception.
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Ham Gunner
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 1:09pm | IP Logged Quote Ham Gunner

As we know, the sun cycles in an eleven year cycle and has done so with predictability for hundreds of years of our monitoring. Until this cycle. The maximum peak of the cycle, which normally consists of lots of sunspot activity just did not happen. Very little activity during this last cycle.

I think global warming believers give man way too much credit for changing the climate. Our sun certainly could change our climate drastically by only a small variation of it's cycling.

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richhodg66
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 2:35pm | IP Logged Quote richhodg66

I agree. The earth has been in a relatively mild weather period for several hundred years and it's just cycling back. Despite all the hand wringing, man has a lot les to do with it than they would have us believe. In the 1970s, all those same types figured we'd be in an ice age now.

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Ham Gunner
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Posted: October 08 2018 at 9:07pm | IP Logged Quote Ham Gunner

I remember reading of a study by a group of scientists that had gathered evidence in layers of the earth of the sun also having a much longer cycle of some sort. More like thousands of years cycle. Not much man can do about the sun, but give it a little time and some will try to blame us for it anyway.

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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 09 2018 at 5:34am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

If you look at the recorded cycles of sunspot activity, the peak of the cycles has continually decreased. The low point of this cycle is predicted to be in 2020.

In reality the Earth goes through warm periods that last for hundreds of years and then into cooling periods that last for thousands.

There are other factors that contribute to climate change, the Earth's orbit around the sun is not constant, at times it is more elliptical, moving the Northern hemisphere further from the sun in summer. The Earth's tilt on it's axis changes as well. When all of these factors combine, then we have ice ages.
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beerd
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Posted: October 09 2018 at 6:12pm | IP Logged Quote beerd

just my opinion, but it's good to see the guys on this forum have a clue on what makes up climate.
..
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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 10 2018 at 6:05am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

beerd


Just a clue..there are a multitude of factors, right now were are in an El Nino cycle, or a variation of that that will have a substantial effect on the weather, then there are the deep ocean currents, or the "deep ocean conveyor" that takes around 10 thousand years to make a complete circuit.

Anyone who points to just one factor and hangs climate change on that is ignorant, a fool or both.

There are predictions by scientists that have a grasp of the total picture that makes up climate, that as we approach the grand solar minimum there may be a corresponding increase in volcanic activity, the resulting clouds, will further decrease temperature.
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Ham Gunner
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Posted: October 10 2018 at 8:01am | IP Logged Quote Ham Gunner

Instead of wringing their hands and screaming the sky is falling and we are all going to burn up, the climate whiners probably should be gathering up nuts for the long winter. Whatever happens, we will just have to adapt. Believing that the earth's climate and the ocean's level should always stay the same is just delusional thinking. But then, many of us have known for a long time that there are lots of sheep in our world that will follow anything like a, well a flock of sheep. They will forever live in a fantasy world.

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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 11 2018 at 6:16am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

Ham Gunner

There are three kinds of people in the world, sheep, wolves and sheep dogs, the best sheep dogs have a more than a little wolf in them.

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turbo1889
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Posted: October 24 2018 at 11:27pm | IP Logged Quote turbo1889

Winter:

Looking forward to it. Hopefully good and
cold with no heavy wet sloppy snow in the
valley floor. Last winter we got a couple
good dumps of wet heavy stuff that was
obnoxious to deal with especially when it
half melted into slop and then froze like
concrete in all the worst places for that
to happen. I prefer it consistently
colder with powder rather then the heavy
slushy muck.


Solar, Climate, Censorship, Fake News,
Etc:


Solar minimum is more likely then not.
There are other more exotic conspiratorial
explanations as well that I don't
completely discount because they are not
without merit. The one I find most
interesting (read as entertaining to think
about) is that our suns smaller brown
dwarf companion is at perihelion on the
far side of the sun and this is causing
all the flares and outbursts from the sun
to be on the back side from us and has
dimmed the facing side but this is only
"the calm before the storm" for us on
Earth because our orbit is faster then the
further out orbit of the brown dawrf and
we are going to catch up and be on the
storm side which is really stormy and we
are going to have a hot summer for 2019
and will see a dull very dark red barely
visible sized star about 1/10 the diameter
of the moon in our summer night skies.
The main proponents of this theory say
that NASA has altered the feeds from the
Solar Observer Alpha and Beta satellites
and are running a loop of what was
recorded previously on them over past
years on their public feeds claiming a
short outage in both feeds which occurred
simultaneously in February 2018 is when
they started playing the loop feeds (for
those who don't know the Solar Observer
Alpha & Beta satellites are stationed at
the other two 1/3 segments on earths orbit
so that by combining their feeds with the
view of the sun from earths vantage point
solar astronomers can get a full picture
of what is happening on the whole sun all
the way around it all the time). Don't
think it's impossible and fun to think
about but not highly likely.

The main proponents of this theory have
actually been pointing to the aggressive
censorship against them on the internet as
a proof of their theory. Actually I think
any other theory besides the "global
warming, manmade climate change" is being
surpressed.

From what I can glean from best sources of
real scientists that are being oppressed
even though they have actual science to
back them up we are just in a natural long
cyclical cycle. Yes, we are loosing
icepack in the Artic but we are continuing
to gain in Antarctica faster then the
Artic is melting. It's been both a lot
colder and a lot warmer in the past then
now and in the future both will happen
again in their doo time.

Three kinds of people, sheep, wolves,
and sheep dogs:


I wish it was that simple. Unfortunately
people are a little more complicated.
Almost every animal with unique
characteristics there is a human
equivalent.

I've run across people that are best
described as "Jackals", "Billy Goats",
"Foxes", "Rabbits", "Lemmings", "Skunks",
"Rats", "Snakes", "Crows", etc . . .

I personally have been described as a
"Mountain Lion" by more then one other
person as far as my personality. Not
exactly a sheep dog since I don't jump
into fight the wolves but prefer a more
solitary existence and kind of feel so
long as it don't effect me the sheep get
what they deserve. At the same though I
don't like wolves and a few have found
that out the hard way. I also don't like
over zealous sheep dogs who try to come
after me because I ain't a sheep and I
ain't a sheep dog like them and even
though I ain't doing nothing to hurt their
sheep my independence offends them.

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To the most serious charge of "ARMING WOMEN" I plead guilty on multiple counts.
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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 25 2018 at 6:13am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

There is something to "9th planet" thing, there are anomalies in the orbits of the known planets, that can be rectified if there was another planet out beyond the orbit of Pluto, which may be reclassified as a planet again, and out of the plane of the elliptic.

That planet would have no appreciable effect on the solar cycles.

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turbo1889
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Posted: October 25 2018 at 9:46am | IP Logged Quote turbo1889

If it were a planet, absolutely true. But
if it is not a planet but a brown dawrf
mini star on an elliptical orbit. It
would have a nuclear effect on the sun and
the sun would have a nuclear effect on it
and their effect on each other would
change as the orbit got closer or further
away.

Again I find it more entertaining then
credible. But if there theory actually is
correct at perihelion the brown dawrf will
actually burn hot enough due to it's
nuclear reaction being turned up due to
it's closer proximity to the sun to be not
entirely in the infared spectrum and might
actually be just barely visible as a
bottom of the visible spectrum deepest
darkest red smug on a clear night. So if
I start seeing that then it will become
more then just an entertaining thing to
ponder on.

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What part of, "the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be INFRINGED" don't you understand ?!?!?

To the most serious charge of "ARMING WOMEN" I plead guilty on multiple counts.
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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 25 2018 at 11:08am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

The astronomers, that have theorized about another body someplace out beyond Pluto, are pretty consistent in their estimates that it would be a planet about the size of Neptune.

A brown dwarf, could be smaller, but considerably more massive, the only effect it would have is a localized gravitational effect.

If it was to have any bearing on the sun's out put, it would have to have a very elliptical orbit and at some point pas relatively close to the inner system, at which point it should be detectable.

Brown dwarf is a classification with a number of qualifying features. One being that the mass is between the heaviest gas giant and the lightest star.

The gravitational anomalies present in our system do not support that hypothesis.

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M700
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Posted: October 27 2018 at 11:14am | IP Logged Quote M700

Winter is coming!

Am always a bit sad to see my favorite season, fall, fade away... There went the beautiful colors, the nice days, just warm enough in the afternoon. There went most of the hunting for another year. Sigh...

But winter? Love it! Especially if we get a good blanket of snow. I actually enjoy shoveling the sidewalk and the drive. Gives me some good exercise and gets me out of the house early in the morning to do something productive.

Then... cross-country skis or snowshoes!    

Both of those activities put a big ol' smile on my face. Yes, I enjoy winter, particularly the snowy winters.

And yes, Ol' Clark and I do continue to get out for upland bird hunting through much of the winter. That's fun too.





My son, our dog, and the dog's bird.


Actually still do a couple of camping trips every winter too:




Used to enjoy winter steelheading on a couple of local rivers. It was pretty special being out there on the river, silent, nothing moving but the fly rod and the river... sigh... Not a strong enough return of fish to the rivers this season for a winter steelhead season. Phooey.

Winter is coming, may as well enjoy it.

Regards, Guy
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John Van Gelder
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Posted: October 28 2018 at 5:40am | IP Logged Quote John Van Gelder

Probably no one here will be alive, when we get to grand solar minimum. We are in cycle 24, the bottom should be in 2020, The peak of the next cycle, 2025-26 should give an indication of what is going to happen. The cycles have been decreasing since the maximum in 1990.

Winter is fun because we know it will not last very long, after 22 years of dealing with -50 weather during the winter months, I do not look forward to it as much as I used to.

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